A new survey and analysis by George Barna suggests faith will play a major
role in who is elected president of the United States this fall.
A new survey and analysis by George Barna suggests faith will play a major
role in who is elected president of the United States this fall.
“If the election were held today, Mr. Bush would be re-elected by a small
margin,” suggested Barna, a Christian researcher based in California.
“However, these next five months will be critical in seeing where the
undecided voters land. They comprise one-fifth of the likely voters. That outcome
will be intimately related to peoples faith leanings and how they interpret
the moral standards and personal character of the leading candidates.
“For instance, one-quarter of the non-evangelical born-again segment (of
the population) and one-third of the Notional Christian segment have yet to
decide whom they will support,” Barna noted. “Their choices will tip
the scale one way or the other.”
Barna drew his conclusion based on findings from a survey of 1,618 American
adults, including 1,260 registered voters. The study has a margin of error of
plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
The findings offer a fascinating glimpse at the role faith is playing in the
election.
In the survey, Barna found:
When all adults were asked who they prefer in the presidential
race, Democratic challenger John Kerry led President George Bush – 43 percent
to 40 percent.
When only registered voters were asked, the race was a dead heat
between the candidates – 43 percent to 43 percent.
When those most likely actually to vote were culled, Bush led Kerry
in the race – 49 percent to 44 percent.
Among likely voters who said they were absolutely certain who they
would vote for in November, Bush led Kerry again – 42 percent to 33 percent.
Among evangelicals (about 7 percent of the American population),
86 percent said they will vote for Bush, compared to just 8 percent who favored
Kerry. That is strong support since 88 percent of evangelicals are expected
to vote. (Evangelicals are born-again Christians who hold to several core beliefs.)
Among non-evangelical born-again Christians (31 percent of the
population), 53 percent said they favor Bush, compared to 35 percent for Kerry.
The numbers are a bit surprising, since only 35 percent of this group is aligned
with the Republican Party, compared to 40 percent affiliated with the Democratic
party. (Born-again Christians have accepted Christ but do not meet all the other
evangelical criteria.)
Among Notional Christians (those who describe themselves as Christian
but are neither evangelical nor born again), Kerry is favored ahead of Bush
in the presidential race – 52 percent to 32 percent.
Persons aligned with non-Christian faiths favor Kerry ahead of
Bush – 55 percent to 22 percent.
Agnostics and atheists support Kerry ahead of Bush – 48 percent
to 24 percent.
When asked why they support a particular candidate, 44 percent of Kerry supporters
said they chose him because he is not George Bush. The only other reason cited
by at least 10 percent of Kerry supporters was the candidates opposition
to the war or his different approach to foreign policy.
When Bush supporters were asked why they had made their choice, 25 percent
cited the presidents job performance, 18 percent noted his character,
14 percent pointed to his foreign policy and handling of the war and 12 percent
said it was the integration of his faith and moral views in his presidential
decisions.
Despite the rash of numbers on the race, Barna emphasized it is too early to
call – too many undecided voters still making choices.
And it will come down to those undecided Christians, Barna explained.
“Mr. Kerry is receiving less support from non-evangelical born-again Christians
than did either Bill Clinton in 1996 or Al Gore in 2000,” he noted. “Compensating
for that, however, is the weaker support given to Mr. Bush by the Notional Christians.
…
“Although voters from non-Christian faiths are a small slice of the electorate
– they overwhelmingly side with Mr. Kerry. From that perspective, then,
Mr. Bushs chances of reelection hinge squarely on the choices of the Christian
body,” Barna said.
It also hinges on turnout, he concluded. The real danger for the president
is that many voters will be so confident of his reelection, they will fail to
go to the polls, denying Bush of needed votes, Barna said.
Meanwhile, Barnas assessment of the role of faith in the election comes
as Bush is being criticized by some for seeking to tie his campaign too closely
to local churches.
Interfaith Alliance leaders recently released an intercepted e-mail seeking
to identify 1,600 churches in Pennsylvania “where voters friendly to President
Bush might gather on a regular basis.”
The e-mail was from a Bush campaign official in Pennsylvania. It asked recipients
to serve as coordinators in the places of worship to help with such activities
as “distributing general information/updates or voter registration materials.”
The e-mail gave indication the Pennsylvania effort was part of a national strategy.
An Americans United for the Separation of Church and State leader decried the
effort as a “misguided attempt to build a church-based political machine.”
Southern Baptist Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission President Richard
Land also voiced caution about it. “If I were a pastor, I would not be
comfortable doing that,” he said in a New York Times article.
“I would say to my church members, we are going to talk about the issues,
and we are going to take information from the platforms of the two parties about
where they stand on the issues. I would tell them to vote and to vote their
conscience, and the Lord alone is the Lord of the conscience.”